Jakarta offers second tax amnesty

By Taylor McDonald


To address Indonesia’s revenue shortfalls, the government is giving taxpayers another opportunity to report previously hidden assets as lower-than-expected growth hits the state income.

The first nine-month amnesty, which ended in March, exempted Indonesians keeping their cash hidden or overseas from criminal prosecution and imposed a small fine if they declared concealed assets. The tax office had said that once the amnesty ended, the authorities would hunt down unreported assets and impose penalties of 200 per cent of the original tax bills.

However, a regulation issued last week says that individuals and businesses which voluntarily declare assets before tax officers find them would only have to pay the upper limit of standard income tax of 25 per cent for firms and 30 per cent for individuals. A lower rate of 12.5 per cent is applied to individuals with income of below US$47,000 or businesses with earnings of up to US$355,000. The policy is scheduled to be enforced until June 2019.

It was revealed this month that Indonesia’s economy expanded at a marginally slower pace than forecast in the third quarter of this year.

GDP growth for the three months until September grew 5.06 per cent year on year, below a forecast from economists consulted by Reuters of 5.13 per cent. In the second quarter 5.01 per cent year-on-year growth was recorded in the second quarter.

In quarter-to-quarter terms, GDP grew by 3.18 per cent, below than the 3.23-per-cent predicted.

Exports rose 17 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, with shipments of merchandise goods rising 24 per cent.

Investment growth increased to 7.1 per cent from 5.4 per cent during the second quarter and household consumption grew 4.9 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier and almost unchanged from the second quarter.

While rising commodity prices has helped deliver double-digit growth in exports for most of 2017 and investment increased, consumer spending and credit growth have been sluggish, despite eight rate cuts during the year. The lower-than-expected growth, when combined with low inflation, has increased pressure on Bank Indonesia to continue to relax monetary policy.

Analyst Gareth Leather of Capital Economics said: “The gradual acceleration in Indonesia’s GDP growth in the third quarter to 5.1 per cent from 5 per cent is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained recovery in the economy. Given the mounting headwinds facing the economy, we expect growth to come in at around 5 per cent over the next couple of years.”

Indonesia’s consumers have been cautious. Picture credit: Wikimedia

Finally a Reliable website for tracking Bali Airport Arrivals and Departures and Status

It has certainly been a chaotic week for the Bali airport after it closed for three days caused by temporary  360 degree shift of winds caused by a rare cyclone  (only 70 KPH) near our Neighbor island Java.

This caused volcanic ash to redirect towards the airport. 

I'm very happy that as I predicted we've shifted back to normal Tradewinds taking the Ash cloud  away from Bali and the airport.

From my vantage point looking at the volcano this morning there may not be a similar problem in the near future. 

Normal Direction of Agung Ash Flowing from S/W to N/E

In fact, there is a good chance we may not have another airport closure with exception of course if the volcano has a full on major eruption

Airport News Very Unacceptable: 

Trying to help our guests and ascertain what to do when flights were canceled was a nightmare, especially when most of the time we had unreliable Airport news. 

For example, I first heard the Airport was closed on Bloomberg news.
I checked at the official Airport website and they said still open. I actually called up Bloomberg and blasted them for misinformation. 
Later I had to apologize after realizing the government website was incorrect. 
Yesterday I found the website flight tracker, https://flightaware.com/live/airport/WADD which appears to be more accurate than the government website and more up-to-date. 

I have not had time to experiment with this but at this point it looks like it's very good. If you have had a bad experience with Flight Tracker please advise me so that I will not recommend this.

Currently it looks like one of the best if not the best way to track not only incoming and outgoing traffic at the Bali airport but also, of course, whether the airport is  open or closed.

.

What does the Bali Airport warning level which was just reduced from Red Alert to Orange alert mean?

After three days the Indonesian Govt. has just reduced it's warning level for the airport form Red Alert to orange alert.

This does not mean the Bali airport is open yet but does provide some optimism.

Here are what the Indonesian Govt. Airport Alerts mean.

Here are two main volcano warning systems - colour codes, and alert levels. 

Warning systems are specific for each volcano. I

t is impossible to predict the date of an eruption. 

Volcano warning systems are based on a probability of an eruption or hazard.

Indonesia Alert System

Alert Level	Criteria	Interpretation
1 Aktif Normal	Monitoring of visual, seismicity and other volcanic event do not indicate changes.	No eruption in foreseeable future.
2 Waspada (alert)	Increasing activity of seismicity and other volcanic events, and visual changes around the crater.	Magmatic, tectonic or hydrothermal disturbance, no eruption imminent.
3 Siaga	Intensively increasing of seismicity with supported by other volcanic monitoring, obvious changes of visual observation and crater. based on observation data analysis, the activity will be followed by main eruption.	If trend of increasing unrest continues, eruption possible within 2 weeks.
4 Awas	Following the main eruption, the initial eruption begin to occur as ash and vapor. Based on observation data analysis, the activity will be followed by main eruption.	Eruption possible within 24 hours.

A supermoon you won't want to miss in Bali this weekend

Bali news and views editor's comments_

_

Be very careful on Bali's shores this weekend n Saturday and Sunday at around 9 PM.

There will be super hide tides which will reach 2.7 m  which is 70 cm above normal.


There could be coastal flooding and strong waves breaking on rocks.

As always, Better safe than sorry

_________________________________________________
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer
September 27, 2017, 8:52:52 PM EDT
4. Supermoon — Dec. 3

The only supermoon of 2017 will rise on Dec. 3, shining big and bright in the late-autumn sky.

A supermoon is a term referring to a full moon around the same time that the moon is near perigee, or at the point in its orbit where it is closest to the Earth.

As a result, the moon appears slightly larger and brighter than normal.


(Photo/Brian Lada)

Additionally, December’s full moon will also be called the Full Cold Moon as December is the month when the winter cold fastens its grip, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

NASA Satellite Photos Reveal Bali Airport May Open Soon - Bali Luxury Villas starting at the village for

Bali news and views editor's comments : 

Looking at the two satellite photos below provide by Nasa for Nov. 27 Th. and 28 Th. it is difficult to understand why the Bali Airport was closed yesterday and today . Maybe the authorities know something we don't know.

What  I do know is that yesterday morning when I viewed Agung from ly balcony at Bali Paradise Estates it appeared that the ash flow was 360 degrees opposite from normal during this time the year. 

I questioned what was going on? Later last night I discovered that a cyclone off of Java was drawing the ash plume to West and Southwest Bali which of course includes the airport.

From what I've read there is a strong possibility that tomorrow we may be back to normal Tradewinds where the winds will flow from S/E to N/E carrying the ash plume out over the Badung straits towards Lembongan and Lombok away from southern Bali and the airport  .

Special Luxury Vila Offer Starting at $25 per guest.

For those of you that are stuck in Bali we are offering a special deal for our villas at more than 50% off.

Special Eruption Discount starting at $18 per guest per night.

Subject to availability you can have your own 350 M2 Plus  two - three bedroom Villa with private swimming pool, private maid and free laundry starting at $25 per person per night for two persons $20 per night per person for four persons and $18 per night per person for six persons +10% tax and  11% service charge.

I wish I could offer you these villas for free, but I don't own them and I have to provide some income to the owners to cover the cost of the maids laundry electricity, etc.  The owners are virtually not making anything at this price.

So I offer you the opportunity to turn this adversity into benefit and s

pend a few more days in Paradise. 

In fact, you may be here long enough to see the volcano fully erupt, which is a once-in-a-lifetime event. I lived in Hawaii for 18 years and never saw one of their multiple volcanoes explode in a full eruption.

This is something you can tell your grandchildren in the future.

I would not offer this if I didn't feel safe. 

I live 10 km closer than our villas with my children and I have no fear all of being caught up in any lava or dangerous clouds.

My Family and I taken yesterday

The last time Agung erupted the maximum it extended was 12 km in 1963.

Consider a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to see a erupting volcano one of nature's most brilliant display .

I'm sure you're boss will understand that you can't get a flight out and therefore you have to stay in Bali. LOL

Below is information from Nasa

Home


acquired November 27, 2017download large image (284 KB, PNG, 1217x811)


acquired November 28, 2017download large image (282 KB, PNG, 1217x811)
View Image Comparison

Since August 2017, residents of the Indonesian island of Bali have been living with a heightened sense of the uncertainty that comes with living near a volcano. Mount Agung has been rumbling with increasing unrest for more than three months. Activity ramped up with a small ash eruption on November 21, 2017, followed by an explosive phreatic eruption on November 25.

Clouds have so far prevented satellites from capturing visible images of the volcanic plume, but that does not mean the eruption has gone unobserved. Even on a cloudy day, some satellites excel at detecting components in the atmosphere that are invisible to human eyes, such as the sulfur dioxide (SO2) in a volcano’s plume. The gas can affect both human health and climate.

These maps show concentrations of SO2 detected over Mount Agung on November 27 (top) and November 28 (bottom) by the Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) satellite. Turn on the image comparison tool to see changes in the SO2 plume’s magnitude and location.

Simon Carn, a volcanologist at Michigan Tech, noted that the westward motion of the plume is due to the pull of Tropical Cyclone Cempaka south of Java.

Also notice that by November 28, the SO2 plume directly over the volcano appears to have decreased. “It is definitely normal that it should fluctuate a bit,” said Janine Krippner, a volcanologist at the University of Pittsburgh. “But the volcano is definitely not winding down at this point.”

She also notes that the concern now is that there is a clear pathway through which lava can travel to the surface. An “open system” like this one led to deadly lava flows during the volcano’s last major eruption in 1963.

According to a report by the Jarkata Globe, about 100,000 people live on the volcano’s slopes but less than half have evacuated. The eruption has also led to airport closures and the cancelation of hundreds of flights.

References
In the Company of Volcanoes (2017, November 17) Agung Volcano Unrest Information. Accessed November 28, 2017.
ReliefWeb (2017, November) Indonesia: Mt Agung Volcano - Sep 2017. Accessed November 28, 2017.
Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (2017, November 21) Agung. Accessed November 28, 2017.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens, using OMPS data from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Story by Kathryn Hansen.Instrument(s): Suomi NPP - OMPS

Bali Volcano Eruption - Plan For the Worst and Hope for the Best - Emergency Supplies Lists

To all of you now in Bali.

It is time to prepare for the worst and hope for the best regarding Bali's pending volcanic eruption.

So far the worst we have seen from the ongoing volcanic activity is some dust over much of Bali and lahar in a few rivers, which is volcanic particles mixed with water coming down the rivers.

In a perfect world, this would be all that would happen, but it's time for a reality check.

The experts and history dictates that most likely we have a very strong possibility of a major eruption occurring in the near future.

Deadly Mount Agung Eruption 1963

 “Very strong possibility of a major eruption occurring in the near future.”

My fellow hoteliers and business owners are probably furious at these words but “it's better to be safe than sorry”.

Xmas may Be A Write Off:

A few more days of the airport being closed and we can pretty well write off Christmas and New Years.

You can always make more money, but if you don't prepare for a major eruption you may lose more than money, you maylose your health or even your life.

Don’t Shoot the Messenger:

Please don't shoot the messenger but I personally have gone into full on, prepare for the worst scenario, as of this morning with my lovely wife Azizah who is out shopping for things that we may need if the worse case scenario, a major eruption takes place.

Are we in danger of being swallowed up by lava or a pryocystic flow traveling at 1,000 km/h? Not likely unless we are within the 10 to 12 km perimeter that the government has set as a danger zone.

Are we likely to get a substantial amount of volcanic dust? Yes!

The question is how much dust and how will it affect our daily lives.

You can go to the Internet as I did and find article are after article of what will happen.

Using common sense the worst-case scenario is that when this happens, we may all be forced to stay in our homes or hotel rooms, at least for a few days or even a week.

“May all be forced to stay in our homes or hotel rooms at least for a few days or even a week”

My biggest concern is a loss of electric power. 

Those of who have lived as long as I have in Bali for 21 years know that power can be knocked out very easily with storm conditions.

With my engineering education I can tell you that the electric power on parts of Bali will most likely be knocked out or have to shut down because they will not be able to operate with intense ash in the air.

When that happens forget about air-conditioning, fans,  water pumps, pool pumps and all the other luxuries that we have in modern-day life.

There is also a good chance we can forget about Internet, mobile communications and even possibly local telephone communications.

On Your Own:

In other words, you may be on your own. If the stores don't have electricity and only a limited amount of fuel to run generators after a few days they may have to shut their doors which may cause vandalism and pilferage of the stores.

Even of the stores do remain open taking a motorcycle or your your car there may be near impossible because engines need clean air to operate.

How to Prepare For The Worst:

So how do you prepare?It's quite simple. You make sure you have the clothing, breathing apparatus ,water and the food to survive for several weeks until things get back to normal.

Look what happened in the American satellite state of Puerto Rico after a hurricane hit a modern island. It was brought to its knees with people relying on mountain water and in many cases polluted water to wash their clothes and their dishes with.

So below is an emergency list that I put together this morning and will be in my home at the end of the afternoon ready for the worst case scenario.

Pray For the Best:

Then I as everybody else will pray that nothing drastic happens, but it if does at least my family will not be scrounging around looking for food and water.

Don’t Kill The Messenger:

Please don't kill the messenger I know many of you don't like me putting so bluntly what the worst-case scenario may look like, but if I save anybody from hardship or even loss of life it was worth it.

As a former yacht charter Capt. who survived two cyclones and many crisis is my long life I can tell you It’s always “better to be safe than sorry”

A.       Emergency Survival Food list

_1. Grocery Store & Bulk Foods
• Rice
• Legumes: Pinto beans, Black beans, split peas, etc.
• Oatmeal, cornmeal
• Canned Fruits (lots), various canned vegetables & canned tomatoes, soups & stew.
• Milk: Canned/Evaporated, powdered, sweetened/condensed
• Eggs, powdered
• Peanut Butter, nuts, popcorn
• Dehydrated fruits & vegetables
• Jerky, Trail Mix
• Wasa Multigrain flat bread, Graham crackers, Saltines, etc.
• Chocolate, cocoa, Tang, punch
• Honey, syrup,white sugar, brown sugar
• Spices (the basics: salt, pepper, cinnamon, garlic, onion salt, etc,)
• Soy Sauce, vinegar, bouillon cubes or granules
• Canned Meats: Tuna, chicken, Spam, ham, etc.
• Cooking Oil & spray
• Baking Supplies & flour, yeast, packaged muffin mix & pancake mix
• Coffee, tea
• Vitamins, Minerals & Supplements
• Water: Quickly figure 1 gallon drinking water/person/day. As cases of bottled water, or from a filer unit like the ‘Big Berkey’ (Google it), a 55 gallon ‘rain barrel prefilled with public utility water, water purification with household bleach or boiling. Don’t store everything else first and skip the water. You can live a month without food, but only about 3 days without water…start out with the proper priorities.

to all you

Breaking News KIM JONG-UN is planning a shock missile launch

Bali news and views editor's comments - As my longtime readers are well aware I've been in and out of silver substantially this year and 90% of the time making handsome profits.

This morning I went into it heavier than I ever have primarily because of technical analysis in that it is at the bottom of a  upward trend line.

Silver Bullion 8:45 Nov 28th 2017

For several other reasons. I purchased this morning. 

First this investigation by the FBI of the Trump  administration and possible manipulation of the elections by the Russian government I believe will come to a head in the next couple weeks.

It may be very messy and ugly, leading to a falling US dollar and rising precious metals.

Even more significant is news this morning on Bloomberg and in this article below that North Korea's Kim Yong Un may be planning another major missile test before Christmas.

Throughout this year every time he's done that it has caused a significant move in the precious metals to the upside. 

Again, I am not a bullion dealer so I do not benefit from this advice You must make investment decisions based on your own decision and accept any consequences thereof.

_________________________________________________________

KIM JONG-UN is planning a shock missile launch just before Christmas according to leading experts - amid escalating fears of an outbreak of war on the Korean peninsula.
By OLI SMITH
10:58, Mon, Nov 27, 2017 | UPDATED: 11:02, Mon, Nov 27, 2017

A leading US thinktank has revealed the exact date for the next North Korean ballistic missile test - and it looks set to come just before Christmas.

Kim Jong-Un will send a terrifying message if he goes ahead with the planned Christmas blast in just over three weeks time.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the next "provocation" will take place on December 17.

GETTYKim Jong-Un may be planning a shock Christmas missile blast

GETTYSpeculation has been rising over when the next missile launch will take place in North Korea

The shock prediction followed an unprecedented data analysis which showed there was "elevated chances of provocations over the next 14 to 30 days".

Speculation has been mounting over when North Korea will next conduct a missile test after the communist regime has remained quiet for over two months now.

An international expert from the Washington DC-based thinktank said the planned test means a "ballistic missile test expected on 17th of December".

This date coincides with the death of Kim Jong-Un's father, Kim Jong-Il, who passed away nearly six years ago.

The launch will involve a "demonstration of a weapon of mass destruction", which will follow an annual military exercise in the country that month.

GETTYA leading US thinktank has revealed the exact date for the next North Korean ballistic missile test

There is a elevated chances of provocations over the next 14 to 30 days
CSIS spokesman The thinktank institute claims December has usually seen a period of "high missile test activity" by the regime in the past five years.

The absence of any recent missile tests has left international monitors puzzled after no warning was issued following this month's South Korean-US military drills.

To the surprise of outside commentators, North Korea has also not yet responded to the US re-designation of the regime as sponsors of terror.

GETTYNorth Korea has not yet responded to the US re-designation of the regime as sponsors of terror

An official from the hermit kingdom has, however, claimed that North Korea’s nuclear threat is “only aimed at the US” and other countries “should not fear”.

Ri Jong-hyok, the deputy of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly and director of the National Reunification Institute, attempted to calm World War 3 fears by stating that the rogue nation only has a problem with the United States.

He said: "It's the Korean people's resolute decision that North Korea should face off with the US only with nuclear weapons to achieve the balance of power.

"Our nuclear deterrence is a sword of justice aimed at fighting US nuke and Asia and any country in the world need not worry about our threats as long as they do not join invasion and provocations toward us.”

How Does Bali Volcanic Eruption affect your airline tickets and hotel rooms?

Just a few minutes ago Bloomberg news, which I watch almost all day stated that Bali's airport is closed due to Mount Agung eruption.

My next call will be to Bloomberg to straighten their act out because as of the report below directly from the airport as can be seen below of 36 flights scheduled between 6 and 9 AM there are 12 cancellations, only one of which is a major airline




Over 50% of the cancellations are Air Asia and a few of them are Lion Air both have reputation of being late most of the time and not making any money.

Could it be because Air Asia had very terrible three quarters financial reports this year and maybe they're trying to save some money?
What happens to the refunds to the customers if they do cancel flights.
Most airlines will allow you to change flights or refund your money!

How Does Volcano in Bali Affect Your Vacation?

A potential volcanic eruption in your destination should deter you from travelling there out of fear of losing your life or facing severe travel delays at the very least. Even if you were to be safe from the magma overflow, volcanic ash alone can also severely disrupt your air travel. As recently as 2010, for example, a volcanic eruption in Iceland caused enormous disruption to air travel across Europe for at least a week. Given this, it's not surprising that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore issued a travel warning on 23 September 2017, advising Singaporeans to defer their travel to Bali due to possible eruption of Mount Agung. If you have to cancel your travel plans because of Mount Agung, would you be able to ask for a refund?
Your flights will likely be rescheduled or refunded by the airline

Good news is that most airlines will be quite accommodating in response to the travel warnings. For instance, Singapore Airlines and Silk Air have already announced that customers traveling to Bali until Oct 2 that purchased their tickets on or before Sept 22 could rebook or request a refund. Other airlines like Scoot (and Tiger Air), Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin have also announced that they will assist passengers to reschedule their flights without imposing additional fees, subject to availability and fare difference. While some like Air Asia have yet to announce anything similar, most airlines are expected to follow suit.
Other bookings won't be as accommodating

Unfortunately, your accommodation and tour bookings won't be as easy to recover. Since each hotel, activity vendors and travel agencies have their own unique policies, they will most likely not refund your money even if you have to cancel your trip to avoid the impending volcanic eruption. Even if they were to allow you to reschedule your bookings, however, the hotel properties might be inaccessible due to damages to the building or its surroundings.
Would travel insurance have helped?

When your travel plans have to be altered or cancelled because of unforeseen volcanic activities, would purchasing a travel insurance policy have reimbursed for your lost travel bookings? Surprisingly, the answer is not an emphatic "yes." Instead, it really depends on which insurance company's policy you purchased.

As far as we've seen, FWD, Hong Leong Assurance and Budget Direct are few of the major insurance companies in Singapore that will reimburse you for cancellations due to travel warnings from the government. In contrast, many other insurers will specify that their trip cancellation benefit is "only claimable upon the occurrence" of certain insured events. This means that the natural disaster should actually occur before you can safely cancel your travel bookings and claim reimbursement from your insurance policy, and that cancellations due to travel warnings don't qualify for reimbursements.

Screenshot of HLAS (left) and FWD's (right) travel insurance policy document

This is why it's so important for you to read the insurance company's policy wording documents like the ones above before purchasing travel insurance. By doing so, you can make sure that you can actually claim for reimbursements in case certain events that can potentially be a factor in your trip actually occur. As long as you are careful to purchase a policy that is appropriate for your destinations and planned activities, you can actually save a lot of money and pain when unfortunate events alter your travel plans. For instance, a policy from one of the three named insurers above could have not only reimbursed you for your hotel and activity reservations in Bali, but it could have also allowed you to cancel your flights instead of merely "rescheduling" to another date when you may not be able to take days off work.
Value of travel insurance

To be sure, travel insurance isn't a must purchase for all travellers. Not only that, most travellers will rightfully feel that they don't benefit from buying a travel insurance policy. Afterall, even mishandled bags, one of the most common travel inconveniences, only occur 6.96 times per 1,000 passengers, representing probability of about 0.7%.

However, it's times like these that the value of travel insurance really becomes apparent. Random, unexpected events like a volcano eruption can occur and significantly alter your travel plans. While it may not make sense to purchase a travel insurance policy for each trip you make, it may still be advisable to do so when you know your trip faces not-so-insignificant probability of facing certain events like volcano, typhoons or injuries from sports. If you know you will be travelling during typhoon season or that you will be engaged in potentially dangerous sports activities (i.e. snowboarding), spending an extra S$20-S$30 on your trip isn't that big of a cost to give yourself some peace of mind.

Is Bitcoin the perfect Elliot Wave? -If so it is very dangerous

Every second or third advertisement on Facebook now is promoting crypto currencies, especially BITCOIN.

All the investment television shows such as Bloomberg and CNBC talk about it going up every day.

After 40 years of investment I can tell you, these are classic warning signs the market is overbought and a major crash is looming.

When it comes it will not be pretty. I am talking about 40% to 60% downturns in a matter of weeks

The question is when?

There are so many naive investors getting sucked into this market right now that it could continue for a while.

Always remember that a very famous investor sold  his stock position in  just before the worst stock crash in history when his shoeshine boy told him what stocks to buy,

 I woke up this morning and looked at the chart four bit coin and thought wow that's a perfect Elliott Wave. See deatils of the Elliott wave below.

Although I believe short-term it could go higher, faster that the end is near and there is no fundamental reason to buy BITCOIN. It's just simply speculation.

I prefer to invest in safer investments such as silver with five to one leverage you can make just as much as BITCOIN 

My favorite investment where over 60 % of my investment is  right now is Bali real estate which since 2017 has already dropped 20 % to 60% for the first time in history, and is now starting backup.

Seasoned  investors don't buy after huge increases they buy when invetsments are on sale.

 You can attend my free Bali Real Estate seminars coming up this week on Thursday evening and Saturday afternoon and learn how you can get in on what I believe is the second best time to buy Bali real estate this century.

Free Bali Real Estate Seminars Nov 30th. and Dec 2nd.

I have been a hundred percent right on real estate for 21 years. There is no reason for me to be wrong now.

Elliott Wave Principle

From R.N. Elliott's essay, "The Basis of the Wave Principle," October 1940.

The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale.

In Elliott's model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it.

Degree[edit]

The patterns link to form five and three-wave structures which themselves underlie self-similar wave structures of increasing size or higher degree. Note the lowermost of the three idealized cycles. In the first small five-wave sequence, waves 1, 3 and 5 are motive, while waves 2 and 4 are corrective. This signals that the movement of the wave one degree higher is upward. It also signals the start of the first small three-wave corrective sequence. After the initial five waves up and three waves down, the sequence begins again and the self-similar fractal geometry begins to unfold according to the five and three-wave structure which it underlies one degree higher. The completed motive pattern includes 89 waves, followed by a completed corrective pattern of 55 waves.^[2]

Each degree of a pattern in a financial market has a name. Practitioners use symbols for each wave to indicate both function and degree—numbers for motive waves, letters for corrective waves (shown in the highest of the three idealized series of wave structures or degrees). Degrees are relative; they are defined by form, not by absolute size or duration. Waves of the same degree may be of very different size and/or duration.^[2]

The classification of a wave at any particular degree can vary, though practitioners generally agree on the standard order of degrees (approximate durations given):

• Grand supercycle: multi-century
• Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
• Cycle: one year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)
• Primary: a few months to a couple of years
• Intermediate: weeks to months
• Minor: weeks
• Minute: days
• Minuette: hours
• Subminuette: minutes

Elliott Wave personality and characteristics[edit]

Elliott wave analysts (or Elliotticians) hold that each individual wave has its own signature or characteristic, which typically reflects the psychology of the moment.^[2][3] Understanding those personalities is key to the application of the Wave Principle; they are defined below. (Definitions assume a bull market in equities; the characteristics apply in reverse in bear markets.)

Five wave pattern (dominant trend)	Three wave pattern (corrective trend)
Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.	Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.
Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.	Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.	Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.
Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).

Pattern recognition and fractals[edit]

Elliott's market model relies heavily on looking at price charts. Practitioners study developing trends to distinguish the waves and wave structures, and discern what prices may do next; thus the application of the Wave Principle is a form of pattern recognition.

The structures Elliott described also meet the common definition of a fractal (self-similar patterns appearing at every degree of trend). Elliott wave practitioners say that just as naturally occurring fractals often expand and grow more complex over time, the model shows that collective human psychology develops in natural patterns, via buying and selling decisions reflected in market prices: "It's as though we are somehow programmed by mathematics. Seashell, galaxy, snowflake or human: we're all bound by the same order."^[4]

Critics say it is a form of pareidolia.

Elliott wave rules and guidelines[edit]

A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules:

• Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
• Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
• Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation.

A common guideline called "alternation" observes that in a five-wave pattern, waves 2 and 4 often take alternate forms; a simple sharp move in wave 2, for example, suggests a complex mild move in wave 4. Corrective wave patterns unfold in forms known as zigzags, flats, or triangles. In turn these corrective patterns can come together to form more complex corrections.^[3] Similarly, a triangular corrective pattern is formed usually in wave 4, but very rarely in wave 2, and is the indication of the end of a correction.

Fibonacci relationships[edit]

R. N. Elliott's analysis of the mathematical properties of waves and patterns eventually led him to conclude that "The Fibonacci Summation Series is the basis of The Wave Principle".^[1] Numbers from the Fibonacci sequence surface repeatedly in Elliott wave structures, including motive waves (1, 3, 5), a single full cycle (8 waves), and the completed motive (89 waves) and corrective (55 waves) patterns. Elliott developed his market model before he realized that it reflects the Fibonacci sequence. "When I discovered The Wave Principle action of market trends, I had never heard of either the Fibonacci Series or the Pythagorean Diagram".^[1]

The Fibonacci sequence is also closely connected to the Golden ratio (1.618). Practitioners commonly use this ratio and related ratios to establish support and resistance levels for market waves, namely the price points which help define the parameters of a trend.^[5] See Fibonacci retracement.

Finance professor Roy Batchelor and researcher Richard Ramyar, a former Director of the United Kingdom Society of Technical Analysts and formerly Global Head of Research at Lipper and Thomson Reuters Wealth Management, studied whether Fibonacci ratios appear non-randomly in the stock market, as Elliott's model predicts. The researchers said the "idea that prices retrace to a Fibonacci ratio or round fraction of the previous trend clearly lacks any scientific rationale". They also said "there is no significant difference between the frequencies with which price and time ratios occur in cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and frequencies which we would expect to occur at random in such a time series".^[6]

Robert Prechter replied to the Batchelor–Ramyar study, saying that it "does not challenge the validity of any aspect of the Wave Principle...it supports wave theorists' observations," and that because the authors had examined ratios between prices achieved in filtered trends rather than Elliott waves, "their method does not address actual claims by wave theorists".^[7] The Socionomics Institute also reviewed data in the Batchelor–Ramyar study, and said these data show "Fibonacci ratios do occur more often in the stock market than would be expected in a random environment".^[8]

Extracted from the same relationship between Elliott Waves and Fibonacci ratio, a 78.6% retracement level is identified as a best place for buying or selling (in continuation to the larger trend) as it increases the risk to reward ratio up to 1:3.

It has been suggested that Fibonacci relationships are not the only irrational number based relationships evident in waves.^[9]

Example of the Elliott Wave Principle and the Fibonacci relationship

The GBP/JPY currency chart gives an example of a fourth wave retracement apparently halting between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracements of a completed third wave. The chart also highlights how the Elliott Wave Principle works well with other technical analysis tendencies as prior support (the bottom of wave-1) acts as resistance to wave-4. The wave count depicted in the chart would be invalidated if GBP/JPY moves above or even touches the wave-1 low.

After Elliott[edit]

Following Elliott's death in 1948, other market technicians and financial professionals continued to use the Wave Principle and provide forecasts to investors. Charles Collins, who had published Elliott's "Wave Principle" and helped introduce Elliott's theory to Wall Street, ranked Elliott's contributions to technical analysis on a level with Charles Dow.

Hamilton Bolton, founder of The Bank Credit Analyst, also known as BCA Research Inc., provided wave analysis to a wide readership in the 1950s and 1960s through a number of annual supplements of market commentary. He also authored the book "The Elliott Wave Principle of Stock Market Behavior".

Bolton introduced the Elliott Wave Principle to A.J. Frost (1908-1999), who provided weekly financial commentary on the Financial News Network in the 1980s. Over the course of his lifetime Frost's contributions to the field were of great significance and today the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts awards the A.J. Frost Memorial Award to someone each year who has also made a significant contribution to the field of technical analysis.

The first A.J. Frost Memorial Award was awarded to Robert Prechter in 1999, with whom Frost co-authored Elliott Wave Principle in 1978.

Rediscovery and current use[edit]

Robert Prechter came across Elliott's works while working as a market technician at Merrill Lynch. His prominence as a forecaster during the bull market of the 1980s brought the greatest exposure to date to Elliott's work, and today Prechter remains the most widely known Elliott analyst.^[10]

Among market technicians, wave analysis is widely accepted as a component of their trade. The Elliott Wave Principle is among the methods included on the exam that analysts must pass to earn the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, the professional accreditation developed by the Market Technicians Association (MTA).

Robin Wilkin, Ex-Global Head of FX and Commodity Technical Strategy at JPMorgan Chase, says "the Elliott Wave Principle ... provides a probability framework as to when to enter a particular market and where to get out, whether for a profit or a loss."^[11]

Jordan Kotick, Global Head of Technical Strategy at Barclays Capital and past President of the Market Technicians Association, has said that R. N. Elliott's "discovery was well ahead of its time. In fact, over the last decade or two, many prominent academics have embraced Elliott’s idea and have been aggressively advocating the existence of financial market fractals."^[12]

One such academic is the physicist Didier Sornette, professor at ETH Zurich. In a paper he co-authored in 1996 ("Stock Market Crashes, Precursors and Replicas") Sornette said,

It is intriguing that the log-periodic structures documented here bear some similarity with the "Elliott waves" of technical analysis ... A lot of effort has been developed in finance both by academic and trading institutions and more recently by physicists (using some of their statistical tools developed to deal with complex times series) to analyze past data to get information on the future. The 'Elliott wave' technique is probably the most famous in this field. We speculate that the "Elliott waves", so strongly rooted in the financial analysts’ folklore, could be a signature of an underlying critical structure of the stock market.^[13]

Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire commodity trader, calls Prechter and Frost's standard text on Elliott "a classic," and one of "the four Bibles of the business":

[Magee and Edwards'] Technical Analysis of Stock Trends and The Elliott Wave Theorist both give very specific and systematic ways to approach developing great reward/risk ratios for entering into a business contract with the marketplace, which is what every trade should be if properly and thoughtfully executed.^[14]

Glenn Neely, financial market analyst and author of the book Mastering Elliott Wave^[15], studied the Elliott Wave Principle for years and used it to develop his own forecasting method by expanding on the concepts Elliott created in the 1930s.^[16]

Criticism[edit]

Benoit Mandelbrot has questioned whether Elliott waves can predict financial markets:

But Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgement of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed.^[17]

Robert Prechter had previously stated that ideas in an article by Mandelbrot^[18] "originated with Ralph Nelson Elliott, who put them forth more comprehensively and more accurately with respect to real-world markets in his 1938 book The Wave Principle."^[19]

Critics also warn the Wave Principle is too vague to be useful, since it cannot consistently identify when a wave begins or ends, and that Elliott wave forecasts are prone to subjective revision. Some who advocate technical analysis of markets have questioned the value of Elliott wave analysis. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:^[20]

The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.

The Elliott Wave Principle is also thought by some to be too dated to be applicable in today's markets, as explained by market analyst Glenn Neely:

"Elliott wave was an incredible discovery for its time. But, as technologies, governments, economies, and social systems have changed, the behavior of people has also. These changes have affected the wave patterns R.N. Elliott discovered. Consequently, strict application of orthodox Elliott wave concepts to current day markets skews forecasting accuracy. Markets have evolved, but Elliott has not."^[21]